If it seems like we’ve been here before, it’s because we’ve never left. On January 30, 2015, the BEA reported a disappointing headline GDP for Q4 2014 following what was truly a blowout quarter the one before. It was that latter one which had many if not most people thinking the end of the malaise was at hand. The Fed had finally done it, QE3 (and 4) worked so at long last the effects of 2008 were expunged.

There was a lot, of course, that happened over the second half of 2014 to give one pause about all that hoopla. One of those things was the midterm elections held just a few months prior. Before them, Democrats were realistic about their chances, figuring to lose ground (as Presidential administrations always do in their 6th year) but openly optimistic that 2014’s economic surge would cushion the blow to a considerable extent.

Forecasts for the second half of the year [2014] remain for growth of close to 3 percent or more, which should keep job creation at its current pace or above. Democrats can also celebrate that total employment in May rose above 138.5 million, the pre-recession peak of 2008. In addition, the U.S. economy has now created over 200,000 jobs a month for four straight months, the first time that’s happened in 14 years.

It didn’t help, nor did that blowout 5% in Q3 2014. These good quarters are always an aberration, the ones that prove transitory at the expense of good economics and the American people. They voted exactly that way in November 2014 despite the overwhelmingly positive headlines and analysis, all pointing to a robust economy that didn’t sit well with voters who were experiencing at best unevenness; at worst, the same no-growth world.

Republicans are now in danger of making the same mistakes. On the one hand, it’s a natural response once controlling all the branches to try and frame the country in the best possible light. But there is an art to it, and it can border on self-delusion if you go too far. Newt Gingrich yesterday sounded a little too familiar to 2014’s politically indulged self-assurance.