About 30 years ago, I was able to predict the U.S. would see a major generational spending peak in 2007, all from my demographic indicator, the Generational Spending Wave.

On a 46-year lag from the time they were born, that’s when the peak number of baby boomers would peak in spending for the average household.

After that, they would slow in spending, ultimately sending the economy over a “demographic cliff.” Remember, 70% of the economy relies on consumer spending! When it slows, everything falls with it.

This first demographic cliff happened right on cue, and it helped carry the world into a financial crisis that we’ve still never really recovered from despite unprecedented government stimulus.

But now, there is a second demographic cliff that I’ve been forecasting which appears to be happening in spades, and globally – not just in the U.S. and China.

While the peak number of baby boomers peaked in spending in 2007, the more affluent – the top 10% to 20% – didn’t peak until late last year, 2015. In other words, up until now their spending has still been driving the economy. Going forward, that will be less and less the case.

This group peaked eight years later simply because they tend to go to school longer and have kids later. They peak on about a 54-year lag, not 46 like the peak number of boomers.

Don’t underestimate this group. We’re talking about the spending of the top 10% to 20% during a period of the highest income and wealth inequality since 1928 to 1929. They account for around 50% of income and spending. That gives them much more weight. And that means that as they cut back their spending as they’re already starting to, it’ll carve out a hole in the economy that’ll really kick off this global crash.

Look at the S&P Global Luxury Index, which gives you an indication as to how this group is spending:

This index peaked in mid-2015 and has fallen 26% as of February 11. It’s down much more than the broad S&P 500, down about 15% at worst recently from its high in May 2015.