Fed officials were out in force on Thursday sending the same old message—“We’ll be raising interest rates, but we’re data dependent” and so forth. Their mission has been to “clarify” their policies and intentions. Evidently investors believe they’re making a hash of things.

With this kind of uncertainty, there’s only one thing investors will do and that’s sell. This they did all day. My opinion had been that stocks had reached the top of the previous 2015 trading range. This was reached nearly precisely by the S&P 500 last week and then we sold-off. I thought then the bottom of the previous trading range then would be the likely target. This target was nearly met Thursday as the weekly chart (below) will show.

Where to from here? More confusion and more churn is likely until December 15^th, the Fed’s next meeting. I would add, the next employment report December 4^th will act to solidify a likely interest rate increase or not.

So, as indicated and with this uncertainty, stocks sold-off hard on Thursday. Friday presents Retail Sales, and judged by earnings news from leaders like Walmart (WMT) and Macy’s (M) the data shouldn’t be great.

Market sectors moving higher included: Volatility (VIX), and only Hong Kong (EWH).

Market sectors moving lower included: Everything else once again.

The top ETF daily market movers by percentage change in volume whether rising or falling is available daily.

Volume picked up on selling as stops were hit. Breadth per the WSJ was negative.

Am I confused? Sure, who isn’t.? Even with 40 years of experience there’s always something new (QE & ZIRP) to test your knowledge.

Retail Sales is on tap for Friday. Given everything else we’ve seen, it’s not likely it will be good.

That means Holiday shopping. Why would the Fed raise interest rates, even if belatedly, given the lump of goal it would mean in everyone’s stocking?