Today we discuss the largest wholesale funding market in the world, the eurodollar market, and how its “normal” form of functioning has dramatically changed, causing all manner of problems in the global economy. 

In last week’s post we discussed shadow banking at its finest: the eurodollar market. It was the precursor to this article and so if you’ve not read it then it’ll be useful to do so here before reading this article.

In that article I mentioned that the eurodollar financing market has never returned to the levels prior to the GFC. Let’s first retrace the steps to understand what exactly has happened since the central banks all “saved us” from annihilation. In doing so I hope to lay the foundation for my belief as to why it is that some 8 years on the world is still mired in lacklustre growth, rising inequality, and this prolonged recession, which never seems to want to go away.

Everyone senses that things have changed, they’re different, out of sync… wrong. But why?

Let’s dig in…

Killing Us Softly – Medicinal Cyanide

Central bank responses to the GFC were that the federal funds target was at the zero lower bound as the Fed attempted to provide stimulus through unsterilized purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities (MBS), or what is popularly referred to as quantitative easing (QE).

Between 2009 and 2014, the Fed threw three rounds of QE at the global economic wall praying that at least one would stick. And so, like trying to carve a pineapple with a plastic spoon, failing, and then attacking the pineapple with yet more plastic spoons, the Fed took something NOT working to be evidence that quantity and size is the problem rather than strategy. Genius.

The third round of QE was completed in October 2014 at which point the Fed’s balance sheet was $4.5 trillion — five times its pre-crisis size. Quite some price to pay, and for what?

The Fed weren’t alone in this. Our sake drinking friends were at it too, giving new meaning to the phrase “big in Japan”, as were the Europeans and Brits. All in all, quite simply unprecedented and extremely unorthodox coordinated central bank actions.

All this intervention by central banks was designed to get the credit markets cranking again. Lower interest rates being the primary mechanism and central bank balance sheets bearing the burden.

Let me just say that for anyone who’s spent some time understanding how an economy functions, you’ll realise that shifting rates to negative is bat shit crazy. If you think about how the capitalist system operates, you realise that we need a complete overhaul of education systems in the developed world, if all it does is puke up the kind of intellect currently running central banks.