To be sure, there are those that remain concerned about the state of the U.S. economy. The glass-is-at-least-half-empty crowd used last week’s weaker-than expected Non-farm Payrolls report as Exhibit A in their argument. And while the more upbeat economic crowd cites the timing of data collection and various other “technical issues” with the jobs report, yesterday’s JOLTS report presented a very strong rebuttal.

You see, the Labor Department reported Tuesday that Job Openings in the United States came in well above consensus expectations and hit a new high in the process.

Source: Wall Street Journal

And with the nation’s Unemployment Rate moving to a new low for the cycle and below the level deemed as “full employment,” Janet Yellen’s merry band of central bankers agree that the economy – as measured by the jobs market – is in pretty darn good shape right now.

Given that the Fed only has two official tasks (full employment and stable inflation), this means that the odds of Yellen & Co raising rates at the conclusion of next week’s FOMC meeting currently stand at about 100%. And no, this is not news.

Don’t Fight the Fed?

From a macro perspective, it is important to note that the Fed has clearly embarked on a tightening cycle. And since these cycles have historically resulted in recessions, this is a primary reason why many of my big-picture stock market models are waving yellow flags here.

One of the oldest clichés on the street is, “Don’t fight the Fed.” The reason this sentiment has become revered over the years is simple. The Fed usually gets what it wants and it controls the money.

In fact, of the sixteen tightening cycles seen in the last 103 years, thirteen have resulted in recessions. ‘Nuf said.

Different This Time?

The question, of course, is will this time be different?