Unusual to capture both Darth Vader and Yoda in the same screenshot, I acted fast when I saw them both flying close together at the Balloon Fiesta.

Of course, we root for Yoda – the representation of the “good guys.”

And naturally, we remain aware of the power of the dark side represented by Darth Vader’s evil empire.

In this sentiment, we examine the frothy market.

Narrowing it down to three areas of focus, I stick to watching

  • The Russell 2000
  • Commodities
  • Interest Rates
  • Using Star Wars to humanize those 3 focuses, we have the Russell as Yoda, Commodities as a young Luke Skywalker and Interest Rates as Darth Vader. If all are Masters yet one lives in the light and the other in the dark, who is most powerful?

    While the Dow made yet another new all-time high today, unfazed by Fedspeak (or anything for that matter), the Russell 2000 has two inside days. That means that today’s trading range was within yesterday’s trading range, while yesterday’s trading range was within the day before.

    That’s a substantial pause in what I consider the most reliable of the indices of the US economy.

    In commodities and my continuing watchful eye on oil, metals and agriculturals, both ETFs I featured last weekend, DBC and DBA, are holding.

    As far as interest rates, the Fed intimated at a December rate increase restating all the words we’ve heard over and over: Strong labor market, expect higher wages with an eventual increase in inflation. That sounds more dovish than hawkish and that’s where Darth Vader comes in.

    Currently, the 4 to 1 ratio of Bulls to Bears is close to the highest ratio in 30 years.

    Vader, or the Emperor, will have you believe that in his hunt for knowledge, he is building a future. We know that his intention is to increase his power.

    With bullish sentiment and complacency in the market at a high, it’s like Vader (or the Fed) thinking he’s the most powerful guy, therefore he and his followers underestimate vulnerability.

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