It’s not the first time that a non-farm payrolls rally wiped away inklings of market anxiety. Coming early in the month – and on Fridays – the jobs report typically makes for interesting trading dynamics. By the end of another interesting week, the timely reemergence of “goldilocks” along with Trump The Deregulator were propelling stocks higher. Long forgotten were Monday’s “Stocks Fall Most in Month…” and “Trump Rally Hits Speed Bump on Immigration Concern.” Indeed, markets were grateful to let a number of developments slip from memory.

It’s still worth mentioning a few indicators that were beginning to lean away from “Risk On”. Prior to Friday’s jump, the powerful bank stock rally had stalled. The BKX was down almost 2% from Thursday to Thursday (Italian and Japanese banks down 3.4% and 2.9%). Small cap stocks have underperformed, with the Russell 2000 down slightly y-t-d as of Thursday’s close. Many “Trump Rally” stocks and trades have recently underperform. Equity fund flows were negative for three straight weeks. In high-yield debt, the rally had similarly lost momentum. Also noteworthy, Treasuries rallied only tepidly on Monday’s equity market selloff. European bonds continue to trade poorly (Greek yields up 33 bps; French spreads to bunds widened another 10bps). This week saw bullion jump $29. The dollar Index is now down 2.5% y-t-d.

The dollar/yen has for a while now been a key market indicator. After trading as low as 101.2 on election night market drama, Trump-induced king dollar euphoria had the dollar/yen surging to almost 119 by early January. The dollar/yen traded down to almost 112 on Thursday, to a two-month low. And similar to Treasuries, the dollar/yen these days struggles to participate during “Risk On” days. Trading slightly higher Friday, the yen jumped 2.2% against the dollar this week.

February 1 – Reuters (Sinead Carew and Jamie McGeever): “U.S. President Donald Trump and a top economics adviser on Tuesday unleashed a barrage of criticism against Germany, Japan and China, saying the three key U.S. trading partners were engaged in devaluing their currencies to the harm of American companies and consumers. The comments from Trump at the end of a White House meeting with pharmaceutical executives, as well as from trade adviser Peter Navarro…, were the starkest indication yet that the first-term Republican president is prepared to jettison two decades of ‘strong dollar’ policies advocated by predecessors dating back to the Clinton administration. The criticism also signals a weakening of the U.S. commitment to an agreement among the financial leaders of the world’s top 20 economies, struck after the 2008 financial crisis, that countries would not pursue policies to target exchange rates for competitive purposes.”

February 2 – Nikkei Asian Review (Mikio Sugeno): “By accusing Germany and Japan of intentionally devaluing their currencies, the Donald Trump administration has attacked normal monetary policy designed to maintain healthy inflation, a dangerous step that could upend an understanding long shared by major economic powers. It was a moment Haruhiko Kuroda had been dreading. The Bank of Japan governor told reporters Tuesday after the central bank’s two-day policy meeting that the new U.S. administration is still taking its first steps, and that the BOJ ‘will see how things play out.’ He knew anything he said could be misconstrued. Several hours later, the president called out China and Japan by name as having devalued their currencies over the course of years: ‘They play the money market, they play the devaluation market’ while the U.S. sits idly by, Trump said.”