Back in October, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released GDP figures that suggested what those behind “reflation” had hoped. After a near miss to start 2016, the economy had shaken off the effects of “transitory” weakness, mainly manufacturing and oil, poised to perform in a manner consistent with monetary policy rhetoric. The Federal Reserve had been since 2014 itching to “raise rates” if for no other reason than to signal a successful end to their post-crisis mandate.

The advance estimate for Q3 2016 GDP was 2.9%, at the time the highest in two years dating back to 2014. It has since been revised up to nearly 3.5%, which does on the surface seem like an economy more so on the move. That was how it was interpreted in widespread fashion.

From CNBC:

“As long as you have consumer spending, some stabilization of capital spending, trade kicking in and inventories switching from being a significant drag, that balanced composition will make us confident that things are moving in the right direction,” said Anthony Karydakis, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak in New York.

The New York Times:

“This is a good, solid number,” said Gus Faucher, deputy chief economist at PNC Financial Services in Pittsburgh. “The economy is growing at a decent clip. Consumer spending will continue to lead growth, and the fundamentals there remain positive.”

For all the quarterly blips, the ups and downs on Wall Street and the back and forth between political parties, the American economy remains more or less on the same trajectory since the recovery began more than seven years ago: modest but consistent growth.

There is it, the claim of “modest but consistent growth” that drives all this commentary. Nobody is really satisfied with the rate of expansion, but at least, we are told, it is expansion. That idea implies that at some point the pace will pick up, and if the Fed is trying to “raise rates” it must be just around the corner. No wonder people are so confused.