US macro risk has eased in recent days, thanks to a mix of upbeat economic reports and a rebound in financial markets. The potential for trouble is still elevated relative to the outlook during last year’s fourth quarter. But for the moment, the numbers generally look a bit less threatening compared with the steady drumbeat of warnings in previous weeks.

It’s unclear if this week’s step back from the brink marks a genuine turning point that leads to stronger growth–or is it a temporary reprieve that will soon give way to even darker results? No one really knows, of course, although the numbers published through yesterday (Feb. 17) certainly paint a modestly brighter profile compared with recent history.

One thing that’s remained constant is the lack of a clear-cut recession warning in The Capital Spectator’s proprietary business-cycle benchmarks. A markets-based view of the macro trend has assumed the worst, but so far there’s still no confirmation in a broad reading of the economic data. Yesterday’s update of the Philly Fed’s ADS Index, another measure of the macro trend, aligns with the view that the near-term outlook still looks positive. That’s also the message in yesterday’s revised nowcast for first-quarter GDP growth via the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model. The bank’s Feb. 17 data projects that the US economy will expand by 2.6% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first three months of this year. If accurate, the economy is on track to accelerate after posting a tepid 0.7% GDP increase in last year’s Q4.

There’s still plenty to worry about, of course, including sluggish growth for the global economy. The US is relatively insulated from offshore blowback, but the weakness in foreign economies–China and emerging markets in particular–is certainly a risk factor, and perhaps one that will bring stronger headwinds in the months ahead. On that note, consider that the OECD today reduced its outlook for economic activity this year. Global GDP is now on track to rise by 3.0% in 2016–0.3 percentage points lower than the group’s November forecast. “Global growth prospects have practically flat-lined, recent data have disappointed and indicators point to slower growth in major economies, despite the boost from low oil prices and low interest rates,” OECD Chief Economist Catherine Mann advised.