A failing of the remain campaign was to overplay the consequences of leaving the EU, warning of near apocalyptic consequences of a “no” vote. In part, this was good old scare-mongering, but it was also based on the idea that the UK would leave the EU (or at least trigger notification of the intention) immediately, overlooking the 2-year separation period and the delay of notification entirely. It also failed to consider the contingency plans that the Bank of England had in hand to soften the fall of Sterling, ensure liquidity was never threatened and bolster confidence with fresh QE measures. The true consequences of leaving, of course, will only fully enfold once the UK is no longer in the EU and the deal (or lack thereof) can be scrutinised. 

Cynics accuse Mrs May of calling a snap general election to capitalise on her relative popularity before the economic downturn that most economists expect will accompany the disengagement process bites, souring public opinion. That process may have begun already as inflationary pressures mount and economic output falters.

The first reading of Q1 2017 growth suggests that the economy expanded by 0.3% which is sharply down on the Q4 2016 reading of 0.7% and the weakest quarter for 12 months. Within the data, the service sector (which accounts for 78% of GDP) fell from 0.8% growth in Q4 to 0.3% last quarter. Analysts had expected a slowdown, but to 0.4% overall rather than the 0.3% figure observed. The decline is being ascribed to the influence of rising prices on household expenditure on discretionary spending. Officially, inflation stands at 2.3% and is at a three-year high, but anecdotal evidence points to a higher level of effective inflation being felt by UK consumers.

The construction industry output and agriculture both slowed in Q1 from 1% in Q4 to 0.2 and 0.3% respectively.