Market Analysis

Pro Farmer’s Midwest Crop Tour results showed record yield potential when field scouts were moving through the eastern and western states of the Midwest, but their results for IL, IA and MN last two days revealed more corn yield variability and lower average yields than was anticipated before the tour began. Excess rains across southern MN and northern IA any dryness in southern IA and parts of IL during the growing season apparently had a bigger impact than expected. However, this year’s pod counts were higher across the Midwest and similar to 2016 when the US had its record soybean yield.

Looking at the main components in making a field corn yield estimate, ear count remains the first factor. This year’s ear numbers were up sharply in SD, OH, IN, and IL while down less then one ear in IA and MN as rainfall and heat advances this year’s crop by 7-14 days vs. 2017. This year’s ear size (kernel rows) was also higher in most states except IA and MN where excessive rains delayed planting and pre-pollination heat occurred. Ear length (not shown) is another corn yield factor with most states on the tour revealing higher cob length. However some strong tip back in IL and late planting in MN prompted 1.8% and 2.9% lower ear length than 2017.

Overall, 6 of this year’s 7 tour states had higher calculated yields vs. 2017 with only MN lower by 6.7%. Interestingly, only NE and SD’s tour yields were records this year, but IL and IA’s tour yields were slightly lower than 2016. PF’s IL192.6 and IA188.2 bu. corn yields don’t match the USDA’s 207 & 202 bu. August levels even with these states historical 5 and 1.1 average bu. increase from the tour’s level to January’s final levels. This prompted the tour to drop its yield to 177.3 vs 178.4 bu.

2018’s pod counts were higher in every state’s vs 2017. This year’s 11.3% higher numbers prompted the PF tour to up its yield to 53.0 bu vs. USDA’s Aug. 51.6.