Inflation and retail sales data for February leave the stage open for the Fed. Most data comes out as expected: core CPI is 2.2% y/y as predicted. Retail sales are up 0.1%, core sales are up 0.2% and the retail control group is up 0.1% a small miss. There are upwards revisions to retail sales numbers.

The US dollar is mildly stronger.

Top tier US figures are released hours ahead of the all-important Fed rate hike: retail sales and inflation. The most critical points are Core CPI y/y which is expected to slide from 2.3% to 2.2% and the control group of retail sales, which is projected to advance by 0.2% after 0.4% beforehand.

The US dollar was slightly lower ahead of the publications.

US data (updated)

  • CPI m/m: previous 0.6%, expected 0%, actual: 0.1%.
  • Core CPI m/m: prev. 0.3%, exp. 0.2%, actual: 0.2%.
  • Core CPI y/y: prev. 2.3%, exp. 2.2%, actual: 2.2%
  • CPI y/y: prev. 2.5%, exp. 2.7%, actual: 2.7%.
  • Retail sales m/m: prev. 0.4%, exp. 0.1%, actual: 0.1%. Previous revised up to 0.6%.
  • Core retail sales: prev. 0.8%, exp. 0.2%, actual: 0.2%.  Previous revised up to 1.2%.
  • Retail control group: prev. 0.4%, exp. 0.2%, actual: 0.1%. Previous revised up to 0.8%
  • Retail ex gas/autos: previous: 0.7%, actual: 0.2%. Previous revised up to 1.1%.

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