Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

USD/CAD

1.3379

1.3431

1.3342

34

89

USD/CAD Daily

Chart – Created Using Trading View

  • USD/CAD continues to give back the advance from earlier this month as Canada Employment exceeds market expectations, with the region adding another 19.4K jobs in March, while U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) increased 98K during the same period amid forecasts for a 180K expansion.
  • The failed attempt to break/close above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.3450 (23.6% retracement) to 1.3460 (61.8% retracement) shifts the near-term outlook towards the downside especially as USD/CAD initiates a series of lower highs & lows; will continue to monitor the developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as former trendline support appears to be offering resistance.
  • The uptick in the Labor Force Participation Rate accompanied by the ongoing pickup in full-time positions may put increased pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to lift the benchmark interest rate off of the record-low, but Governor Stephen Poloz may continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach at the meeting on April 12 as the central bank head warns normalizing monetary policy prematurely would push the economy back into recession; in turn, more of the same from Poloz & Co. may dampen the appeal of the Canadian dollar as it drags on interest-rate expectations.
  • Broader outlook for USD/CAD remains constructive as it preserves the upward trend carried over from the previous year, but the lack of momentum to test the 2017-high (1.3535) may spark a move back towards the Fibonacci overlap around 1.3280 (50% retracement) to 1.3310 (38.2% retracement), which largely lines up with the April low (1.3295).

    • Currency

    Last

    High

    Low

    Daily Change (pip)

    Daily Range (pip)

    GBP/USD

    1.2395

    1.2478

    1.2382

    75

    96

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