With the markets in free fall since the start of the year, many investors are rightfully worried about their portfolios’ rapid declines. Although one of the biggest drivers of recent declines has been the fall in fossil fuel (especially oil) prices, clean energy investors have been far from immune.

Is it time for clean energy investors to run for the hills, or time to buy cheap clean energy stocks just when a number of drivers are turning in their favor? 

Which clean energy sectors are best positioned to weather a worsening storm — or recover the most if the clouds finally clear? 

I asked a panel of professional green money managers these questions. Here is what they had to say.

Market trends

My panel is conservative to bearish on market trends. Tom Moser, portfolio manager at High Impact Investments, is particularly pessimistic.

He does not think cleantech will be spared. But he does think the sector “will be one of the leaders when a new, secular bull market emerges, just as biotech led coming out of the 2008 financial crisis.” A three- to five-year bear market does not leave much room for good performance in 2016, however.

“It will take patience and smarts to navigate through the coming S&P 500 carnage,” said Moser.

Oil prices

Many managers see low oil prices as a weight dragging down the sector. 

Robert Wilder, a co-manager of the WilderHill New Energy Global Innovation Index and manager of the WilderHill Progressive Energy Index, expressed worries about fossil fuel prices across the board.

“Perhaps the biggest hurdle across clean energy has been oil dropping near $30, something hardly predicted by anyone a couple of years ago. Natural gas continues to look cheap and abundant too far over the horizon, while coal too is fetching very low prices. All this has meant dirty fossil fuels are very tough competition, since natural gas, for instance, could readily fire new power plants, and oil can cheaply fuel traditional cars,” said Wilder.

Wilder still holds out hope for solar, wind, efficiency, electric cars and advanced batteries.

“It has long been said the cure for cheap oil is cheap oil — and at some point, declining rig counts are likely to have some impact. More important though, is that clean energy, unlike fossil fuels, is on a long-term and unwavering trend toward ever-greater cost-competitiveness,” said Wilder.

“Once solar unsubsidized gets as cheap as fossil fuels, all bets are off in terms of support for dirty energy. That notion, which not long ago seemed very far off, is quickly becoming a more real threat to vested interests.”

Shawn Kravetz, president at Esplanade Capital and manager of the solar-focused hedge fund Electron Partners LP, called the connection to oil prices “senseless” — particularly for solar stocks.

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