POITOU – It doesn’t look as though investors will get much Christmas cheer in their stockings this year.

Last Wednesday, the Fed raised interest rates – as expected – by a token amount…

At first, there was a little rally in stocks. But in the two trading days since, the Dow lost 621 points.

Trading will be thin this week, as the big day approaches and more and more people turn from Mr. Scrooge investors into Mr. Fezziwig revelers.

But this morning, the Japanese stock market sold off – a bad start to what could be a bad day… a bad week… and a bad year.

Faded, Tired, and Shredded

Investors looking at what happened on Thursday and Friday might think they see a trend.

They might decide to spend the holidays “safe and sound” – on the sidelines.

Falling prices might create a panic… who knows?

We would run our “Crash Alert” flag up the pole. But the old flag is in tatters. We felt sorry for it and put it into retirement.

Each time we thought a panic might occur, we hauled it out and sent it up. Each time, it hung there… fluttering in the breeze… warning investors. And each time, there was no crash to give meaning to its life.

Faded… tired… shredded on the edges, the poor flag is out of service – and maybe just when we need it most!

Whether the top is in or not… we don’t know. But it’s bound to come sometime. And if not now, when?

So much of what happens in the world is an absolute mystery – including the magic of holiday season – that we hesitate twice before making any forecast at all, much less a market forecast.

But investors are probably best off believing that the top is in… even if it turns out to be wrong. There can’t be much life left in a bull market this old… this expensive… and at this late stage in the credit cycle.