Tax reform is one of those issues that is the worst of all possible worlds – it’s painfully boring to talk about let alone analyze but talking about it and analyzing it are necessary because sweeping changes to the tax code affect everyone.

For his part, Paul Ryan is confident that he’s going to move this thing through the House in time for the turkey pardon.

“We’re on track for moving this through the House before Thanksgiving. That’s our plan,” Ryan told Fox News on Sunday.

That may indeed be “the plan” but you know what they say about the “best laid plans” – something about how they often go awry as soon as a sitting President calls a Senator from his own party ”Liddle Bob’ on Twitter.

As for the Senate, Ryan said that House Republicans “expect our friends in the Senate to be about a week behind us.”

Got that? No? That’s OK, because nobody understands what is going on here, least of all Paul Ryan. This has become the most convoluted legislative endeavor in recent memory save maybe the bungled attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare and there’s a lot of irony there considering both health care reform and tax reform were high on Trump’s agenda.

As you’re undoubtedly aware, the market has been pricing this out – and “bigly” despite Steve Mnuchin’s contention that taxes are somehow “baked in” to the equity rally.

I mean maybe Steve is right to say that what you see reflected in record highs on the benchmarks reflects tax reform expectations, but somehow I doubt it. Because high tax stocks have been faded relative to the broader market all year, this year has been all about growth in the growth vs. value debate, and the curve is the flattest it’s been since the crisis. So you know, I’m not sure any of that fits neatly in some thesis about reflation euphoria.

Anyway, Goldman is out with something new on this and to let them tell it – and they should know, right? I mean after all, Gary Cohn is supposed to be the guy getting this done – “there is a 65% chance of enactment by Q1 2018.” First, here’s a “simple” table that shows you how this train wreck has evolved over time: