Ahead of revisions to the US equity sector landscape in a few days, the existing definitions show that consumer discretionary, technology, and health care shares continue to lead this year, based on a set of exchange-traded funds. The upcoming reshuffling may reorder the horse race, but for now these three sectors are the dominant year-to-date performers through yesterday’s close (Sep. 18). Meanwhile, shares that comprise the so-called consumer staples sector are in the red year to date, posting the second-worst performance for the major sectors.
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) has recently pulled into lead this year, posting a strong 19.2% total return. Nipping at its heels is Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK), which is up 17.2% year to date. In third place: Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) via a 14.2% gain.
Strength in consumer stocks that are considered the most sensitive to the economic cycle – i.e., the discretionary slice of the consumer sector — is no surprise when you consider that sentiment on Main Street is roaring. The preliminary estimate of this month’s University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment posted a solid rise, marking the second-highest reading this year and also the second highest since 2004. Meantime, “the Expectations Index reached its highest level since July 2004, largely due to more favorable prospects for jobs and incomes,” Richard Curtin, chief economist for the Surveys of Consumers, said on Friday.
The hard data on consumer spending supports the upbeat mood, based on the broad trend in the latest numbers. Headline retail sales increased for a seventh straight month in August and grew 6.6% on a year-over-year basis – close to the fastest annual gain in eight years.
Note, however, that companies that fall under the heading of consumer staples are lagging in 2018. “Staples are not necessarily the bastions of steady growth, strong cash flow and high dividend payouts they once were,” according to BlackRock’s Kate Moore.
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