Our gold price forecast for 2018 will potentially be invalidated. How more honest and transparent can you be as an analyst, right, even on the first trading day of the year.

Let’s revisit our thesis, and the reasons why we believe gold will bullish in 2018, not bearish.

Changing intermarket dynamics in 2018

Very important to note: as our research team has shown in this Safe Haven Forecast 2018: Correlation Between Gold And The Japanese Yen something very odd is happening right now: the traditional correlation between the Yen and gold is breaking up, after it has held many years. Either the Yen or gold is ‘cheating’, the challenge of our analyst team is to understand what exactly is going on. We believe that all charts in this article suggest a bullish outcome for gold.

Gold price chart

First of all, the most critical price point on the gold chart is $1250. As gold was moving below $1250 in December we were convinced it was signaling weakness, and the continuation of the downtrend or, at best, a sideways pattern.

However, gold stopped falling at $1230. That was a first red flag going against our forecast.

With that, gold’s price chart starts looking constructive. Note how it is today breaking out of its falling 7-year bear market trend. Note also this series of higher lows. This is not yet the real deal though, as said in our 2018 forecast a real bull market starts once gold crosess the $1350 to $1370 area. This is what we wrote:

The possibility of gold to break out into a new secular uptrend in 2018 seems to be unlikely, at least according to us. The only thing we say about this: once the price of gold goes above $1375, and trades there for at least 3 consecutive weeks, we could be looking at a breakout scenario. In that case $1550 would be a price target.

As gold is now moving to test the $1350 area it is key to watch if and how long it will be able to trade above $1350.

Not only is the chart setup looking stronger it is also the commodity trade that underpins a bullish outcome for gold. We wrote a bullish copper price forecast for 2018, bullish uranium forecast for 2018, and several other commodities are moving stronger than we expected.