On Thursday the 16th of March, trading on the euro closed down. The US dollar yesterday made gains against all the majors. Demand for it increased after the publication of US economic data.

The US posted a rise in import prices, a decline in initial jobless claims, and a significantly higher-than-expected value on the Fed’s NY Empire State manufacturing index.

Markets expect that the FOMC will raise interest rates by 0.25% next week. US10Y bond yields are currently trading at 2.83%. The end of yesterday’s session was met with the news that special prosecutor Robert Muller has subpoenaed Trump Organization documents in connection with the Russia probe.

US data:

  • Initial jobless claims (9 Mar): 226,000 (forecast: 226,000, previous: 230,000).
  • Import price index (Feb): 0.4% (forecast: 0.3%, previous: 0.8%).
  • Export price index (Feb): 0.2% (forecast: 0.3%, previous: 0.8%).
  • NY Empire State manufacturing index (Mar): 22.5 (forecast: 15.0, previous: 13.1).
  • Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (Mar): 22.3 (forecast: 23.0, previous: 25.8).
  • Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 13:00 Eurozone: CPI (Feb).
  • 15:30 Canada: Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities (Jan), foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities (Jan), manufacturing shipments (Jan).
  • 15:30 USA: building permits (Feb), housing starts (Feb).
  • 16:15 USA: industrial production (Feb).
  • 17:00 USA: Michigan consumer sentiment index (Mar), JOLTS job openings (Jan).
  • 20:00 USA: Baker Hughes US oil rig count.
  • Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView

    The first half of my forecast yesterday worked out perfectly. This all changed, however, after the breakout of the trend line.

    During the US session, sellers trading on the news managed to break through the horizontal support zone of 1.2340 – 1.2350, as well as the trend line from the 1.2273 low. The drop slowed down around the 90th degree. This isn’t a significant support level, so after a correction to 1.2324 (22 degrees), I’m expecting the euro to drop against the greenback to the 112th degree at 1.2274.

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