1. Activity increased during the Commitment of Traders reporting week ending 8 December. There were four significant (10k+ contracts) gross currency adjustments by speculators. Given that this period covers the second largest gain in the euro’s history, it is surprising
December 12, 2015
The Federal Reserve has kept its zero interest rate policy (‘ZIRP’) for several years (and much longer than originally anticipated) whilst the European Central Bank seems to be getting serious about doing ‘better’ and has now reduced the deposit rate at the
The stock market currently is even more overvalued than it was at the bull market peaks of both March 2000 and October 2007 — according to not just one, but two, valuation measures. That at least is the message of
Is It Time To Buy Into Groupon At Current Prices? Groupon (NASDAQ: GRPN) has continued to have a tough year, and the stock has continued to roll down the hill for the year so far. With the holiday season well under way,
When we first detailed the link between a devaluing currency, increasing restrictions on outflows of China capital, and Bitcoin , the virtual currency soared (driven by Chinese flows, just as predicted). The last few days, as China has once again started devaluing its
For those looking for a bit of humor this weekend, here’s an article for the “just in the nick of time” bucket. Back in the Saddle Bloomberg reports writes Ally Returns to Mortgage Business Two Years After Total Exit. Ally, whose
Our analysis of final business sales data (retail plus wholesale plus manufacturing) shows unadjusted sales declined compared to the previous month – and there was a decline of the rolling averages. Even with inflation adjustments, business sales are in contraction.
This year has been a tough one for the energy sector. I honestly thought we would see recovery in Q4, but it might be another year away. All year I have been buying positions with familiar names – Chevron (CVX),
The collapse of junk bonds reminds me of 1994-95 when Greenspan’s Fed raised interest rates. That led to many bankruptcies in the high yield bonds which plowed its way throughout the high yield space. The Fed’s ZIRP monetary policies over
Last week, the IMF admitted the Chinese renminbi to the Special Drawing Right with a surprisingly large weighting of 10.92%. That makes it the third-largest weighting, more than the weightings of sterling and the yen. This should increase the proportion
