It’s hard not to put all emphasis on missile tests and other serious forms of sabre rattling. Even doing so, as the bond market may be doing right now, however, misses the underlying. Everything at the moment traces back to
September 5, 2017
As I was compiling background notes for the new semester, I found the current level and trend in the term spread of interest. Figure 1: Ten year minus three month Treasury spread (blue), and ten year minus two year spread (red),
Debt Ceiling Resolved Soon? Goldman Sachs lowered its odds of a government shutdown, caused by the debt ceiling not being raised, from 50% to 35%. These numbers are somewhat arbitrary because there’s no way of knowing the precise odds of
The market got a little spooked today. Congress is back in session. Cause and effect? Maybe, because pretty soon hopes of what might be accomplished in by Washington will be met with reality. However, here’s what I’m focussed on. Bonds
Sector Strength This spreadsheet is telling us to own foreign, large cap and the defensive stocks. The leading sectors are Technology, Health Care, Utilities. These are the sectors that run up when investors are feeling cautious. Some would disagree regarding
Biotech Bull Market 2017 Performance as of 9/5/17 Rayno Biopharmaceutical Portfolio outperforms the market. XBI was the Best Play up 41.88% YTD. Biotech stocks broke through the July sector highs as tracked by major ETFs. However we are still about 25% off the July
The European Central Bank’s meeting is getting closer and the tension is felt in euro/dollar. Here is the view from Barclays: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research argues that the ECB meeting on Thursday
Friday’s tight action plus a long weekend of North Korea news left traders skittish and wanting out. However, there wasn’t a significant break of support to suggest a rout is imminent but further losses need to be watched. The S&P
OK, at the moment, I have nothing to say – – but we need a comment cleaner! So I’ll just toss in this cute little SlopeChart to show the correlation between BitCoin and Nvidia. There are a handful of firms which make GPUs, Nvidia being
Traders come back from Labor Day weekend hitting the sell button. In tonight’s video market update we look at the SPY weekly expected move being hit on the downside on the first trading day of the week. Watch the video
