EUR/USD: Upward Trend Continues

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The euro/dollar pair closed up on Tuesday. The single currency found some support from Le Pen’s lacklustre performance in the French presidential debate as well as from the British pound, which strengthened after the release of inflation figures in the UK.

During the European session, the EUR/USD pair shot past the daily resistance at 1.0790 on its way to 1.0819. From there, the pair entered a correctional phase.

Market expectations:

In Asia, the price has corrected to 1.0789. During this correctional phase, the hourly indicators offloaded. The resistance at 1.0789 became a support. A rebound from this level would be a bullish signal.

At the time of writing, the euro is trading at 1.0802. The economic calendar for Wednesday is relatively empty. Buyers currently have a market share of 85%, which is why today I’m expecting the euro to strengthen against the dollar to 1.0849. This growth may stop at 1.0835 (projection from the tops).

Day’s news (GMT+3):

12:00 Eurozone: current account (Jan);

16:00 USA: housing price index from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (Jan);

17:00 Switzerland: SNB quarterly bulletin;

17:00 USA: existing home sales (Feb);

17:30 USA: EIA crude oil stocks change (Mar 17);

22:45 Canada: Lawrence Schembri, deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, to speak;

23:00 Canada: RBNZ interest rate decision.

EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView.

Intraday forecast: low: 1.0789 (current in Asia), high: 1.0849, close: 1.0812.

Euro-bulls broke the resistance at 1.0790 on Tuesday. After a rebound from 1.0789, this turned into a support level for buyers. The reversal zone is located at the 112th degree. Cyclical analysis and patterns suggest that the euro will weaken over the next couple of days. Given that short positions on the euro make up 85% of the market, and that the Stochastic indicator is in the buy zone, I’m going to take a risk and say that the euro will strengthen against the dollar to 1.0849.