Here’s Why Automaker Stocks Are Falling (Despite The Media’s Exuberance)

How can it be that automaker stock prices are tumbling given that auto sales (if one listens to CNBC) are surging, that (if one listens to the CEOs) everything is awesome for automakers, and (if one listens to Phil LeBeau) there is no bubble in auto credit? The answer is simple… (you just don’t want to admit it)

Two words – channel-stuffing!

In fact, as IceFarm Capital’s Michael Green details, the credit-fueled over-productiuon has historically been disastrous for the global auto sector…

So once again – a mal-investment boom has pulled forward demand (from who knows where) and signalled entirely incorrect production expectations to executives who can only see 1 quarter ahead and the amount of buybacks they must do in order to maintain their own personal wealth.