This powerful and protracted bull market has made Cassandras look foolish for a long time. Those who went on record predicting that massive central bank manipulation of markets would not engender viable economic growth have been proven correct. However, these same individuals failed to fully anticipate the willingness of momentum-trading algorithms to take asset prices very far above the underlying level of economic growth.

Nevertheless, there are five reasons to believe that this fall will finally bring stock market valuations down to earth, and vindicate those who have displayed caution amidst all the frenzy.

Reason Number One: Budget and Debt Ceiling Showdowns in D.C.

Congress needed to shave two weeks off its August recess in an effort to make headway on raising the debt ceiling, which will hit the absolute limit by mid-October, and how to fund the government past September 30th of this year. Tea-Party Republicans, as well as Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney, would like to add spending reform riders to the debt limit bill. But, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is looking to pass a “clean” bill. If Mnuchin gets his clean debt ceiling bill passed, the show-down will then move to the appropriations bills used to fund the upcoming fiscal year. For the past few years, Congress has been pushing through last minute continuing resolutions, rather than passing a budget, to provide funding at a rate of the previous year’s funding. Not being able to make progress on either of these measures will lead to a government shutdown that could leave markets and Trump’s tax reform agenda in a tail spin.

Reason Number Two: Trump May Finally Deal with North Korea

The Donald may find it very convenient to “Wag the Dog” before the year closes out. What is needed is a “fantastic” distraction from his failure to reach an agreement to repeal and replace Obamacare and to push through with a tax reform package. Also, an assault on Kim Jong-un’s nuclear facilities would go a long way in reducing the media’s obsession with Russiagate. The President and his administration held an emergency meeting on July 4th after North Korea fired its first ICBM into the Sea of Japan. Trump promised that a nuclear strike against the U.S. “won’t happen” and guaranteed, “A measured response” to the rogue regime. Trump also urged China to, “put a heavy move on North Korea” and to “end this nonsense once and for all.” Such a preemptive strike this fall would tilt the robot trading machines into a sell-button frenzy.