Recession chatter is on the rise… again. And for an obvious reason: there are fresh signs of weakness in several key indicators. But there’s also ample evidence of strength, at least for the moment. How can we separate the signal from the noise? Carefully, methodically, and with a healthy dose of skepticism when we’re told that a single number marks the tipping point. Let’s dig slightly deeper into these guidelines via a summary of best practices for analyzing the mother of all known risk factors.

1. Refrain from cherry-picking the data points. There’s a habit of focusing on the latest update and drawing conclusions, for good or ill, about the broad macro trend. This is a great idea if you’re trying to write a punchy headline or if you’re a talking head with a particular agenda to promote. But it’s a terrible idea if the goal is developing robust and relatively reliable real-time business-cycle analytics. In short, monitor the big picture based on a diversified set of indicators, or at least look to someone who crunches the numbers in a responsible manner.

2. Don’t rely on one methodology. There are as many ways to monitor and quantify recession risk as there are stars in the sky (or Republicans running for President). Much of what’s labeled as recession risk analysis is worthless, but a handful of techniques are useful. But nothing’s perfect. Business-cycle index A can stumble at times, which is why it’s prudent to look for confirmation in Business-cycle indexes B and C. This would be a problem if you had to build and maintain benchmarks from scratch. Fortunately, there are several resources available, including regular updates from two regional Fed banks—the ADS Index and the National Activity Index. You can also find a transparent approach to recession-risk analysis here at The Capital Spectator, including last week’s update.