Donald Trump is a very media-centric public figure. And because the chatter in DC now is of Trump as a legislative failure during his first hundred days in office, Trump needs a win – and Canada is an easy target. Here’s why.

First, let’s remember what the objective for Trump here is. He campaigned on a promise of putting America’s interests forward above all others. This means taking unilateral action in a way that previous US presidents have not done. We’ve seen this on foreign policy now with Syria. But most Americans don’t have foreign policy uppermost in mind. And with his immigration ban, Obama healthcare repeal and Mexico-paid wall promises stymied, Trump needs a domestic policy win.

Now Trump made very specific promises after the election. And if you run through them all, he hasn’t achieved legislative success on a single promise. With his reputation as a ‘doer’ in mind, he must fall back on executive and unilateral actions now in order to notch up wins that he can present to his base as evidence that he is an effective President. This is especially true given rumours that, shortly, he will compromise on the wall with Mexico in order to avoid a US federal government shutdown. This is where Canada comes into play. 

If you read the Canadian press, they make no bones about Canadas protectionist measures on dairy and the longstanding dispute on soft lumber. Even under US President Obama, these issues were in dispute. Now dairy farming is one of Canada’s largest agricultural sectors, with a big presence in eastern and western provinces. It is $19.9 billion of GDP and 220,000 jobs according to the Dairy Farmers of Canada lobby. So the industry is protected by high import tariffs. The duty on milk, for example, is 270%.

Softwood lumber is slightly different. The dispute there is about the Canadian government owning forest lands. The US forestry lobby claims the Canadian provinces in effect subsidize their industry by charging low royalty rates. And since the US imported $5.7 billion in lumber last year, that’s a bone of contention.