FRBNY’s December 2017 Primary Dealer survey results aren’t yet published, so we will have to wait a few days for the collection of those banks’ economists to tell us what they think their own traders likely won’t do. It’s a mess in that situation, but one as old as the crisis. Nevertheless, Economists for some reason still occupy prime slots in mainstream commentary opining about a great many things often year after year (after year).

One such is Blackstone Group’s Byron Wien. Mr. Wien is well-known throughout Wall Street and not just as the firm’s current Vice Chairman. He has a long and storied career in high NYC finance, having served two decades as Morgan Stanley’s often-seen Chief Investment Strategist once looming as a constant presence over the dot-com era with widely followed, and market moving, weekly essays.

Among his publications most people still follow is his annual “surprise” list. It’s a catalog of ten items, each one where Wien believes the larger public sees a slim one in three chance of happening which he thinks is actually better than 50%. His list this year includes:

With higher inflation, interest rates begin to rise. The Federal Reserve increases short-term rates four times in 2018 and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield moves toward 4%, but the Fed shrinks its balance sheet only modestly because of the potential impact on the financial markets. High yield spreads widen, causing concern in the equity market.

It follows, as it would, his “surprise” that GDP growth and US wages accelerate this year (2018), following closely the narrative set out by Janet Yellen (in her less conflicted days) and many, many others. It may count as a surprise only in that very few might be inclined to believe it outside of the class of professional economic forecasters.

This far broader skepticism isn’t exactly unwarranted, of course. We need only look back to Mr. Wien’s list of 2017 surprises to see why: