Fundamental Forecast for USOIL: Bullish

Crude Oil Price News Talking Points:

Crude Oil price per barrel extended gains to end the week in what was seen as a relief rally after a disappointment EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report that showed a rise in gasoline stockpiles. When there is a rise in refined crude products, traders imply from the data that demand may be softening. However, it’s worth looking behind the scenes to see that Oil refining is increasing aggressively to pre-Hurricane Harvey levels toward the end of the year.

Chinese Refinery Demand Supports Global Energy Market

Despite the rise in gasoline stockpiles, Oil outperformed metals aggressively for the first full week of trading in December. Metals marked their worst week since May 2016 as doubts surfaced on infrastructure growth demand from China. Naturally, traders tend to look to base metals like Copper and Iron Ore when dropping demand from China becomes a news item, but precious metals also dropped this week.

Other Commodities Disappoint As Oil Holds Firm

The gold price forecast fell as Gold suffered its third weekly decline, but this week’s decline was the largest in seven months. The blame for precious metal underperformance was an improving US interest rate outlook on an expectation that US Tax Reform was progressing.

The Oil price was able to rebound to the end of the week thanks in large part to Chinese data showing local refiners purchased Oil from abroad (i.e., imported) crude to near record levels of 9.05m b/d. At the same time, a proxy for Chinese inventory levels that also implies demand from Shandong ports came in at three-month lows after falling nearly 4% w/w.