Crude Oil Prices To Stay Bid As Bullish Sequence Unfolds

Crude trades above $70/bbl for the first time since 2014, with oil prices at risk of extending the advance from earlier this month as a bullish sequence unfolds. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar regains its footing following the lackluster Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report,

CRUDE OIL PRICES TO STAY BID AS BULLISH SEQUENCE UNFOLDS

Image of daily change for oil

Crude remains bid as U.S. President Donald Trump threatens to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, and oil prices may continue to retrace the decline from back in 2014 as they breakout of a near-term range.

Image of US crude production

Even though U.S. field outputs sit at record-highs, renewed sanctions against Iran may keep oil prices afloat especially as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies keep the door open to carry the production-cutting pact into 2019. In turn, officials in Saudi Arabia may largely achieve their target of $80/bbl over the coming months, with increased turmoil in the Middle East likely to fuel the recent rally as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserve the bullish trends from earlier this year.

Bear in mind, recent price action warns of extreme market conditions as the RSI approaches 70, and oil prices may exhibit a similar behavior as the start of 2018 should the oscillator push into overbought territory.

USOIL DAILY CHART

Image of oil daily chart

Recent series of higher highs & lows keeps the topside targets on the radar, with a break/close above $71.30 (38.2% expansion) opening up the Fibonacci overlap around $72.70 (50% expansion) to $72.80 (100% expansion).

Need to keep a close eye on the RSI as it comes up overbought territory, with the indicator at risk of highlighting an extreme reading should it follow as similar path as in January.

However, lack of momentum to break above 70 may tame the recent advance in oil as the oscillator starts to diverge with price, with a move below the $68.60 (61.8% expansion) to $69.70 (23.6% expansion) raising the scope for a move back towards $67.30 (50% expansion).