During my free time, I get to relive my teenage days with my 6-year-old son by playing Madden — probably the most popular NFL video game franchise ever.

I don’t know where he gets it from, but he likes to talk a lot of trash as we play.

To teach him a lesson, I’ll let him take a brief lead early in the game, which results in him taunting me about losing. Then, before halftime, I’ll take the lead and he’ll get upset.

It’s moments like this that he can learn a critical life lesson — don’t celebrate early.

A two-touchdown lead in the first quarter is meaningless if you don’t win the game. Likewise, a touchdown or interception early in the game is great, but he has to stay focused on the big picture. It’s about trying to win the game.

Right now, investors are celebrating an earnings season that seems to have topped meaningless analyst expectations. But there is a lot more to this story…

If you’ve followed along this earnings season, you may have noticed a trend.

Most companies are beating bottom-line expectations. Topping these expectations is great, as it shows the company generated better-than-expected profits for shareholders. But those same companies are failing to beat revenue growth expectations, thereby missing a critical element to expanding earnings over the long term. In other words, companies are taking an early lead, but failing to win the game.

Without revenue growth, besting lowered earnings expectations does little to reassure me that our economy is thriving. And after delving further into recent earnings releases, I find the picture is even bleaker when looking at the months ahead. Let me explain.

The Real Earnings Story

Right now, we are more than three-quarters of the way through fourth-quarter earnings season. And we have a good idea of how it’s going to end up — and it’s not pretty.

According to FactSet Earnings Insight, nearly 70% of companies have beaten analyst earnings expectations. This is where the good news ends, and yet it’s what many investors are taunting us with — using it as evidence of a strong economy.