The structural budget balance represents what government revenues and expenditure would be if output were at its potential level. Changes in structural balances are an indicator of whether fiscal policy is expanding or shrinking economic activity.

As the following chart for the OECD countries indicates, changes in the structural balance have become pro-cyclical (i.e. spurring even faster GDP growth) among its 35 members countries.

(Note that OECD includes most advanced countries as well as emerging market countries like Mexico, Chile and Turkey. In other words, the OECD data are a good proxy for world GDP.) 

The large-scale shift in global fiscal policy is a very robust indicator for continued and sustainable world growth. 

 

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