VIX declined beneath all but the July 26 low. However, it was a record weekly closing low. The inverted Head & Shoulders formation still survives due to the probability that today’s low may have been a Master Cycle low.  

(TheFelderReport)  RealVision recently put together a compilation of several market pros’ views (including yours truly’s) regarding the very serious and unique risks investors face today. It’s now on YouTube so it’s free to watch but if you’re active in the markets I highly recommend a subscription to RealVision. In my humble opinion, it’s the only financial television worth watching.

SPX continues to challenge its Broadening Wedge

SPX continues to challenge its Cycle Top and Broadening Wedge trendline at 2589.16.  A decline beneath the upper Diagonal trendline at 2550.00 may signal an end to the rally.  A further decline beneath the lower Diagonal trendline at 2500.00 gives a probable sell signal and suggests a much deeper decline may follow.  

(Reuters) – A surge in shares of heavyweight Apple helped push up major Wall Street indexes on Friday, as investors also assessed a mixed U.S. labor market report.

Shares of Apple, the world’s most valuable publicly traded company, rose 2.8 percent as shoppers streamed into the company’s stores to buy its latest iPhone. Apple also gave a better-than-expected sales forecast for the holiday shopping season.

U.S. job growth accelerated in October after hurricane-related disruptions in the prior month, the Labor Department said. But wages grew at their slowest annual pace in more than 1-1/2 years in a sign that inflation probably will continue to undershoot the Federal Reserve’s 2-percent target.

 NDX goes parabolic

NDX has expanded its throw over above the Ending Diagonal formation. This week it made another all-time closing high.  Short-term support and the lower Diagonal trendline lie at 6065.32.  A decline beneath that trendline may produce an aggressive sell signal.    

(IBD)  U.S. stock indexes were mixed midday Friday, as the market disregarded a miss on October payrolls.

The Nasdaq rose 0.4%, while the S&P 500 added 0.2%. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.1% and the small cap Russell 2000 was flat.

Volume in the stock market today was down on both major exchanges.

October payroll increases rolled in at 261,000 — about 20% below expectations. Bulls looking for upbeat angles could point to upward revisions in August and September and the fact that the economy rebounded quickly from the effects of hurricanes.

High Yield Bond Index consolidates beneath its Cycle Top

The High Yield Bond Index made an effort to rise above Cycle Top resistance at 184.94 without success.  A break of the upper Diagonal trendline and Short-term support at  180.93 may tell us the rally is over.  What’s happening in Europe is also happening in the US.

(Reuters) – Calling the top in world markets and getting the timing of it right seems like a lottery, but predicting the catalyst for the turnaround may be less random.

High-yield, or so-called “junk”, bonds are on a tear that puts even record-busting stock markets in the shade. Last week, the yield on the Merrill Lynch global high-yield bond index fell below 5 percent for the first time ever. The European index yields barely 2 percent.

To put that into context, European junk bonds yield less than 10-year U.S. Treasuries trading around 2.35 percent.

USB rises above Long-term support

The Long Bond rallies above Long-term support at 152.53.  This another week or more that may allow USB to rise to mid-Cycle resistance at 157.94.  Should it break above that level, it may complete the right shoulder of a potential Head & Shoulders formation.  .  

(Economist)  FOR the umpteenth time in the past decade, a great turning-point has been declared in the government-bond market. Bond yields have risen across the world, including in China, where the yield on the ten-year bond has come close to 4% for the first time since 2014. The ten-year Treasury-bond yield, the most important benchmark, has risen from 2.05% in early September to 2.37%, though that is still below its level of early March (see chart).

Investors have been expecting bond yields to rise for a while. A survey by JPMorgan Chase found that a record 70% of its clients with speculative accounts had “short” positions in Treasury bonds—ie, betting that prices would fall and that yields would rise. Meanwhile a poll of global fund managers by Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) in October found that a net 85% thought bonds overvalued. In addition, 82% of the managers expected short-term interest rates to rise over the next 12 months—something that tends to push bond yields higher.