Back in September 2015, FactSet estimated that EPS for the S&P 500 would grow by almost 5% in Q1 2016. Their latest update is now -6.9%. Energy, of course, gets most of the blame but according to their latest breakdown it is widespread if of a smaller magnitude. For Q4, earnings are on track to contract by about 4%, and of the ten industry sectors six are to be negative. In fact, huge earnings growth in telecom services is fully offsetting the drag from energy, leaving the vast middle to be that negative muddle.

Even financials, which FactSet estimated at the end of 2015 would report a sound 8% EPS growth in Q4, is now less than two months later cut to barely positive, just 0.4%. On the revenue side, five of the ten sectors are still contracting with one important sector, consumer staples, now at zero. That leaves full-year EPS at -0.5% (with a huge downward bias at the end of the year extending already at least two quarters into 2016) and full-year revenue of -3.5%. The trends are disturbing not necessarily yet in magnitude but persistence:

The blended earnings decline for Q4 2015 is -3.6%. If this is the final earnings decline for the quarter, it will mark the first time the index has seen three consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since Q1 2009 through Q3 2009. It will also mark the largest year-over-year decline in earnings since Q3 2009 (-15.5%)…

The blended revenue decline for Q4 2015 is -3.7%. If this is the final revenue decline for the quarter, it will mark the first time the index has seen four consecutive quarters of year-over-year revenue declines since Q4 2008 through Q3 2009.

Again, with revenue and EPS expected to decline further in Q1, that will make at least four straight quarters of EPS contraction and five for revenue. Currently, analysts are not predicting positive growth in either until Q3, but that is as tenuous as the once much more robust predictions for right now.