Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

         

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of August 27

       

August 27

       

Chicago Fed National Activity Index – July

0.35

0.43

0.38

 

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

28.0

32.3

28.0

           

August 28

       

International Trade in Goods – July

-$69.6B

-68.3

-69.1

 

Wholesale Inventories – July (a)

0.1%

0.1

0.1

           

S&P Case/Shiller Index – June

       

Twenty City M/M

0.2%

0.2

   

Twenty City M/M – SA

0.7

0.7

   

Twenty City Y/Y

6.5

6.5

             

Consumer Confidence – August

127.4

127.4

126.5

 

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

19

20

19

           

August 29

       

GDP – Q2 (p)

4.0%

4.1

4.0

 

Pending Home Sales Index – July

106.9

106.9

106.9

           

August 30

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

213K

210

214

           

Personal Income – July

0.3%

0.4

0.4

 

Personal Spending

0.4

0.4

0.4

           

August 31

       

Chicago PMI

64.0

65.5

63.5

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – August (r)

95.3

95.3

95.3

           

Week of September 3

       

September 4

       

ISM (Mfg) – August

57.9

58.1

   

Construction Spending – July

0.4%

-1.1

                       

September 5

       

Auto Sales* – August

17.0

16.77

   

International Trade – July

-$47.6B

-46.3

             

September 6

       

ADP Employment Report – August

190

219

             

Productivity – Q2 (r)

2.8%

2.9

   

Unit Labor Costs

-0.8

-0.9

             

ISM Services – August

56.7

55.7

             

Factory Orders – June

-0.6%

0.7

   

Durable Goods Orders

-1.7

-1.7

   

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.5

0.5

             

September 7

       

Nonfarm Payrolls – August

200K

157

   

Private

190

170

   

Manufacturing

25

37

   

Unemployment

3.8%

3.9

   

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5

   

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.3