Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of January 1
January 2
PMI Manufacturing Index – December
55.0
55.0
55.0
January 3
ISM (Mfg) – December
58.0
58.2
58.0
ISM Prices
Construction Spending – December
0.7%
1.4
0.7
Auto Sales* – December
17.5M
17.53
17.5
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
January 4
Initial Unemployment Claims
238K
245
240
ADP Employment – December
200K
190
185
PMI Services Index – December
52.4
52.4
52.4
January 5
ISM Services – December
57.6
57.4
57.6
Nonfarm Payrolls – December
210K
228
190
Private
205
221
183
Core Private*
Manufacturing
29
31
17
Unemployment
4.1%
4.1
4.1
Average Workweek
34.5Hr
34.5
34.5
Average Hourly Earnings
0.2%
0.2
0.3
*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services
International Trade – November
-$49.9B
-47.4
-48.3
Factory Orders – November
0.9%
0.1
1.1
Durable Goods Orders
1.3
1.3
Nondurable Goods Orders
0.4
0.7
Week of January 8
January 8
Consumer Credit – November
$19.5B
20.5
January 10
Export Prices – December
0.1%
0.5
Import Prices- December
0.1
0.7
Wholesale Inventories – November
0.7%
0.7
January 11
Initial Unemployment Claims
Producer Price Index – December
0.1%
0.4
Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services)
0.2
0.4
Treasury Budget – December
-$54.0B
-138.5
January 12
Consumer Price Index – December
0.1%
0.4
Core CPI
0.2
0.1
Retail Sales – December
0.4%
0.8
Retail Sales, ex autos
0.5
1.0
Retail Sales, ex autos and gasoline
0.6
0.8
Business Inventories – November
0.3%
-0.1
Leave A Comment