Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of July 24
July 24
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index
52.0
52.0
52.0
PMI Services Flash Index
54.2
54.2
54.1
Existing Home Sales – June
5.510M
5.620
5.580
July 25
FHFA Home Price Index – May
0.4%
0.5
0.6
S&P Case/Shiller Index – May
Twenty City M/M
1.0%
0.9
0.8
Twenty City M/M – SA
0.3
0.3
0.3
Twenty City Y/Y
6.0
5.7
5.8
Consumer Confidence – July
117.7
118.9
117.0
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
7
7
8
July 26
New Home Sales – June
605K
610
612
FMOC
1.125%
1.125
1.125
July 27
Initial Unemployment Claims
240K
233
240
Durable Goods Orders – June
2.8%
-0.8
3.2
International Trade in Goods – May
-$65.0B
-65.9
-65.0
Chicago Fed National Activity Index – June
0.0
-0.26
0.10
July 28
GDP – Q2 (a)
2.6%
1.4
2.6
GDP Implicit Price Deflator
1.2
1.9
1.2
Employment Cost Index – Q2
0.5%
0.8
0.6
Employment Cost Index – Y/Y
2.3
2.4
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (r)
93.1
93.1
93.1
Week of July 31
July 31
Chicago PMI – July
62.0
65.7
Pending Home Sale Index – June
109.5
108.5
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
14.0
15.0
August 1
Auto Sales* – July
16.7M
16.51
Car Sales
6.0
5.91
Truck Sales
10.7
10.59
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
Personal Income – June
0.4%
0.4
Personal Spending
0.1
0.1
ISM (Mfg) – July
56.0
57.8
Construction Spending – June
0.4%
0.0
August 2
ADP Employment Report – July
175K
158
August 3
ISM Services – July
56.8
57.4
Factory Orders – June
1.1%
-0.8
Durable Goods Orders
2.8
-0.8
August 4
Nonfarm Payrolls – July
180K
222
Private
175
187
Manufacturing
2
1
Unemployment
4.3%
4.4
Average Workweek
34.4HR
34.5
Average Hourly Earnings
0.2%
0.2
International Trade – June
-$45.3B
-46.5
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