Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of September 3
September 4
PMI Manufacturing Index – August
54.3
54.5
54.5
ISM (Mfg) – August
57.9
58.1
57.6
Construction Spending – July
0.4%
-1.1
0.4
September 5
Auto Sales* – August
17.0
16.77
16.9
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
International Trade – July
-$50.0B
-46.3
-50.2
September 6
Initial Unemployment Claims
213K
213
213
ADP Employment Report – August
190
219
182
Productivity – Q2 (r)
3.0%
2.9
3.0
Unit Labor Costs
-1.0
-0.9
-1.0
PMI Services Index – August
55.2
55.2
55.2
ISM Services – August
56.7
55.7
56.8
Factory Orders – June
-0.6%
0.7
-0.7
Durable Goods Orders
-1.7
-1.7
Nondurable Goods Orders
0.5
0.5
September 7
Nonfarm Payrolls – August
200K
157
198
Private
190
170
190
Manufacturing
25
37
21
Unemployment
3.8%
3.9
3.8
Average Workweek
34.5HR
34.5
34.5
Average Hourly Earnings
0.2%
0.3
0.3
Week of September 10
September 10
Consumer Credit – July
$14.0B
10.2
September 11
JOLTS – July
6.600M
6.650
Wholesale Inventories – July
September 12
Producer Price Index – August
0.2%
0.0
PPI Core (less food, energy and trade services)
0.2
0.3
September 13
Consumer Price Index – August
0.2%
0.2
Core CPI
0.2
0.2
Treasury Budget – August
-$183.0B
-76.9
September 14
Retail Sales – August
0.6%
0.5
Retail Sales, ex Autos
0.5
0.6
Retail Sales, Autos
0.5
0.6
Export Prices – August
-0.1%
-0.5
Import Prices
-0.4
0.0
Import Prices, ex-Petroleum
-0.1
0.1
Industrial Production – August
0.2%
0,1
Capacity Utilization
78.2
78.1
Manufacturing
0.2
0.3
Business Inventories – July
0.5%
0.1
Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Sept (p)
96.2
96.2
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