All eyes are on Barcelona with the upcoming speech of the Catalan President Carles Puigdemont. Will he declare independence? We provided three scenarios for the big speech. Here is another view from Credit Agricole.

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

Credit Agricole CIB FX Strategy Research discusses the potential reaction for the EUR to today’s Catalan vote at 6pm BST (1PM EDT).

“Today at 6PM the Catalan parliament is expected to vote on whether to support a Unilateral Declaration of Independence (UDI) following the independence referendum that took place a week ago.

1– A majority in favour of UDI could trigger a suspension of the Catalan autonomy by the central government in Madrid and likely lead to further escalation in the political tensions. Such an outcome could leave EUR vulnerable. This is not the only possible outcome, however

2– We expect EUR to trade higher if there is no support for an UDI following the vote in the Catalan parliament later today. Abating political risks in the Eurozone could allow investors to focus on the improving Eurozone data,” CACIB argues.