Precious metals have risen sharply in recent days as investors looked for alternatives to the stock market and U.S. dollar. Both gold and silver pushed through important technical resistance levels. Metals bulls hope to see markets enter a virtuous cycle; improving charts followed by more speculative long interest leading to improved charts.

There is some evidence this may be happening.

TFMetalsReport.com reports the inventory of the largest exchange-traded gold fund (GLD) bottomed in December. It has since rallied sharply as 1) speculators are buying shares in the ETF in volume and 2) GLD “authorized participants” — mostly bullion banks — are covering short positions.

The U.S. equity markets are commanding most of the focus right now as trading continues to be volatile. In recent days, the S&P 500 fell back to just above key support level in the 1,850 range. If this support level fails, it could start getting ugly.

One wonders if the U.S. can be far behind should economic data continue to disappoint. Former Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, expects our central bank to add negative rates to the tool kit for fighting recession. And Bloomberg reported that the odds of negative rates, while still relatively small, are rising.

Reasons to Be Cautiously Optimistic on Metals

Precious metals markets are picking up steam. Last week’s price performance was the best we have seen in months and both gold and silver broke through some important overhead resistance levels. The weekly gains stacked on top of the very strong showing in January. So where do we go from here?

Metals prices are riding higher primarily based on two drivers; fear and the Federal Reserve. Let’s take a look at both for clues about what to expect in the coming months…

It looks increasingly like the world economy is headed for trouble. Fear may be on the rise. Investors are grappling with some pretty lousy economic data, and last week was no exception. The ISM Manufacturing Report showed the fourth straight down month for factories, and the biggest drop in manufacturing activity in more than a year.