It’s not Friday but who cares. The stock market is lying to you.

This is the worst open of a year since 1932, the middle of the Great Depression, when there was 20%+ unemployment and it was only going to get worse.

Banks were about to get all shut down. People were on soup lines. And another eight years of hell were in store for people.

This is not happening now. Let’s look at what is happening in reality:

China’s Manufacturing Growth Went Negative

This is the main reason the stock market has been falling.

How do I know this? I don’t read any of the news but this morning I looked at all the headlines and this is what they said. “CHINA MANUFACTURING DECLINE CAUSES U.S. STOCKS TO PLUNGE”.

Bullsh*t,

Let’s look at reality:

– China manufacturing growth has been slowing for the past six years in a row. So this is no surprise.

– China manufacturing has a tiny effect on the US economy.

I’d be more worried if the Chinese service economy was slipping. That’s the part of the economy that spends tourism and consumer dollars in the US.

Instead, the service part of the Chinese economy (like any developing economy, including the US, when manufacturing slows) is hitting an all-time high.

– Chinese manufacturing plus new tensions in the middle east, helps keep a cap on oil prices which are ready to explode upwards. Low oil prices are effectively the same as having lower taxes. This leads to higher stock prices.

“But China is the second largest economy!”

Bullsh*t.

This is a great pundit argument ready to go for TV and for academics.

Who cares.

In the 1990s both the Soviet economy and the Japanese economy (the two other largest economies back then) totally collapsed and never returned. NEVER.

What happened to the US economy? It became larger than ever. Economies are linked….until they aren’t.

A Famous Bet that Explains What Is Happening