In a quiet start to the week following last week’s surprisingly strong rebound which followed a stronger than expected jobs report (perhaps to demonstrate that good news is once again good news), Japan stocks continued to sink as the USDJPY dropped to fresh lows, while commodities declined for a fifth day as the supply glut from crude to copper weighed on prices, dragging down commodity currencies. European equities rose, rebounding from a one-month low.

Crude fell in early trading after Saudi Arabia’s deputy crown prince said last week the kingdom will only arrest production if Iran does, although it has since posted a modest rebound, while copper dropped to a one-month low. European stocks advanced after trading at their lowest valuations in more than a year relative to U.S. equities, even as France’s phone companies tumbled after a deal to consolidate the nation’s telecommunications industry fell apart.

“Three of the major commodities oil, gold and copper have all retraced in recent days,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S told Bloomberg. “Saudi Arabia caused a major upset on Friday by saying that a freeze deal was conditional of Iran joining which will not happen at this stage.” Copper and industrial metals have been hurt on concern China’s investment-led economic boom won’t be enough to avoid more cutbacks, he said.

In key macro news, Euro-area unemployment dropped to 10.3% in February down from an upwardly revised 10.4%, and the lowest level since 2011, in line with estimates. “I see this number as a movement sideways,” said Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam. “This is a reflection of what is happening in the economy. Growth has clearly weakened in the second half of last year and the first quarter of this year will also probably be a bit weaker.”

Youth unemployment remained disturbingly high, with 21.6% of Europeans under 25 unemployed, just modestly lower than the 22.7% a year ago.

In other news, Eurozone producer price inflation also dropped, this time by -0.7%, and down -4.2%, to the most negative annual increase since the financial crisis.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.8%, after being in the red earlier, while futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.2% despite the GAAP PE multiple on the S&P hitting approaching 24, the highest level since the dot com era. While U.S. stocks erased annual losses and closed at their highest level of the year on Friday, the rebound in European shares has stalled for more than two weeks. With a valuation of about 14.7 times estimated earnings, the Stoxx 600 traded at its lowest level since January 2015 relative to the S&P 500 on Friday.

This is where markets stood as of this moment:

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2068
  • Stoxx 600 up 0.8% to 336
  • FTSE 100 up 0.3% to 6165
  • DAX up 0.3% to 9829
  • German 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 0.13%
  • Italian 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.23%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield up 1bp to 1.45%
  • S&P GSCI Index down 0.3% to 315.5
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.3% to 126
  • Nikkei 225 down 0.3% to 16123
  • S&P/ASX 200 down less than 0.1% to 4995
  • US 10-yr yield down 1bp to 1.76%
  • Dollar Index up 0.13% to 94.74
  • WTI Crude futures down 0.7% to $36.53
  • Brent Futures down 0.3% to $38.55
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,217
  • Silver spot down 0.6% to $14.96
  • Top News:

  • Orange-Bouygues Deal Collapse Ends Months of Tense Diplomacy: Deal to consolidate French telecom industry proved too complex; government demands on price, governance were late obstacle
  • Alaska Air Said Near Accord to Buy Branson’s Virgin America: Negotiations are advanced, deal could face regulatory scrutiny after wave of combinations; JetBlue Airways was said to be other competitor in bidding; Alaska Air Seen Winning Virgin America for ~$2.5b Cash: WSJ
  • World Leaders Hid Wealth Via Shell Companies, Report Alleges: Leaked files from Panama law firm show web of hidden wealth, International Consortium of Investigative Journalists says
  • Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Mulls U.S. Regional Banks in Growth Bid: U.S. banking market remains aa focus because of size and steady growth as lender wants to be among top 10 U.S. banks by deposits
  • Biggest Ever Saudi Overhaul Targets $100 Billion of New Revenue: Levies on expats, energy, luxury goods, sugary drinks seen; plan is to boost non-oil revenue to balance budget by 2020
  • Amtrak Resumes Service After Fatal Crash Slows Northeast Trains: To restore regular train service today in Northeast after crash that killed 2 railroad workers near Philadelphia
  • Blackstone to Buy HPE’s Stake in Mphasis for $825m: To buy at least 84% of HPE’s stake for 430 rupees/share, remaining 16% will be bought through mandatory tender offer
  • SoftBank’s Arora Said in ‘Active’ Talks With Yahoo: N.Y. Post: SoftBank President Arora said to be in talks with Yahoo’s board, including CEO Marissa Mayer
  • Trump Back on Attack Demanding Kasich Exit, Predicting Recession: Trump demanded competitor John Kasich drop out of the Republican presidential race and asserted U.S. is headed for a “very massive recession”
  • Top JPMorgan Treasuries Trader’s Exit Said to Draw SEC Inquiry: Regulators examining alleged policy breaches that prompted JPMorgan’s U.S. head of government-bond trading and another employee to leave firm this year, according to person briefed on the matter
  • ‘Batman v Superman’ Rules Box Office for Second Weekend: movie registered hefty sales amid light competition from new releases
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