Russia and Saudi Arabia are reportedly meeting (in secret – but not really) on Tuesday, February 16th, in Doha, Qatar. The popular speculation is that this may be the long-awaited decision to cut oil production.

Once again, oil will be in for a wild ride this week as rumors continue to swirl that OPEC and non-OPEC producers may be warming to the idea of production cuts – or at the very least, a freeze at current levels. As much as traders, oil producers, and investors want this to be true, the facts say otherwise.

The producing countries that matter most in the oil market right now are Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iran. None of these producers have any incentive to cut production, which is why news of potential production cuts is primarily wishful thinking.

Saudi Arabia has the second largest proven oil reserves in the world (only a few billion barrels less than Venezuela) along with the strongest financial standing and the best-run national oil company (Saudi Aramco). When it comes to setting policy in OPEC, Saudi Arabia and its oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, have outsized influence. Saudi Arabia believes its policy of high production levels is working – which it is – for Saudi Arabia.

Russia has only about 80 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, putting it at just 8th in the world, behind the UAE. However, Russian oil production is currently running at full capacity, putting its output on par with Saudi Arabia. Even though Russia is not an OPEC member, its extremely high production levels make the country even more influential in the current oil market than OPEC producers with greater reserves.

Iran is in the opposite position from Russia – the country has the third largest proven oil reserves but extremely low production levels due to years of economic sanctions. Right now, Iran’s power to influence the oil market comes from its potential to grow production since sanctions have been lifted. Iranian predictions should not be believed, considering the poor state of its oil facilities and its inability to attract the foreign capital needed to rehabilitate them, but Iran has enough productive capacity such that it could quickly fill any gap in the oil market left by an agreement other producers might make to reduce production.