The price of gold dropped six bucks, and silver seven cents.

Without much price action, let’s look a few other angles to gain some perspective. First, here’s the chart of both silver and the decidedly not-monetary metal copper.

The Prices of Silver and Copper in Gold

There’s a good correlation, with the biggest divergence being late 2014 through early this year. For copper, not being money, to hold out at a high price before dropping looks like hope in the recovery. Or if not that, then at least hope in QE and the theory that rising money supply causes rising commodity prices. It didn’t work, and the price of copper dropped. It’s still dropping and may yet break down below the low it made in late 2009.

Silver has an industrial component, so it’s no surprise to see its price drop as well. Now let’s zoom in for better resolution, by looking at a chart of copper priced in silver.

The Price of Copper in Silver

The price of copper in ounces of silver is nowhere near the low it made early this year, much less the low of 2009 or 2011. As production and trade decline, and as the rate of interest declines, we would expect the non-monetary commodities to fall in price. Silver, which is partly non-monetary has been falling in terms of gold. There’s no reason why copper shouldn’t fall in terms of silver (apologies for the double negative).

The headline this week isn’t just to be gratuitously provocative. $13 represents one distinct possibility. How distinct? Read on for the only true picture of supply and demand in gold and silver…

First, here is the graph of the metals’ prices.

The Prices of Gold and Silver

We are interested in the changing equilibrium created when some market participants are accumulating hoards and others are dishoarding. Of course, what makes it exciting is that speculators can (temporarily) exaggerate or fight against the trend. The speculators are often acting on rumors, technical analysis, or partial data about flows into or out of one corner of the market. That kind of information can’t tell them whether the globe, on net, is hoarding or dishoarding.