In an otherwise calm market, Italian bonds have been sold off today, breaking away from the broader bullish sentiment amid the European bond market, with the yield on 10Y BTPs rising as much as 5bps, above 2% for the first time since October 26.

While there has been no specific catalyst, some traders are starting to factor in the potential political confusion that could result after the Italian elections due in just over 2 months. As a reminder, on March 4, voters in eurozone’s third-largest economy will head to the polls amid dwindling support for the ruling pro-EU center-left Democratic party and rising support for the Eurosceptic opposition.

According to the FT, the likely scenarios after the vote range include a hung parliament, a grand coalition or a populist government with a much more confrontational attitude towards Brussels, including the most troubling outcome: plans to question Italy’s membership of the single currency.

As the FT notes correctly points out, “None of the outcomes heralds greater stability for a country that, from an economic and financial point of view, remains the weak link in the 28-member bloc.”

The biggest flashpoints in the race are expected to be Italy’s lacklustre economy and the migration crisis, which has brought more than 620,000 asylum seekers to the country from across the Mediterranean Sea over the past four years.

But analysts say the political wrangling so far has been focused more on the personalities of the party leaders than the huge challenges facing Italy.

“For the moment it’s looking like a very ugly and chaotic campaign,” says Giovanni Orsina, a professor of political science at Luiss university in Rome. “It’s concentrated on personal attacks, provocations and jokes that have nothing to do with real platforms.”

In an attempt to mitigate concerns, Citigroup recently wrote that its economists see a center-right victory as marginally the most likely outcome, but concede that longer-term, big question marks remain over which individual party will dominate within the bloc and the true depth of ostensible EU-scepticism.