The ISM Manufacturing survey insignificantly declined but remained in expansion. The key internals are in expansion. The Markit PMI manufacturing Index is in positive territory and insignificantly improved.
Analyst Opinion of the ISM Manufacturing Survey
Based on these surveys and the district Federal Reserve Surveys, one would expect the Fed’s Industrial Production index growth rate remain about the same as last month. Overall, surveys do not have a high correlation to the movement of industrial production (manufacturing) since the Great Recession.
From Bloomberg / Econoday:
| |
Consensus Range |
Consensus |
Actual |
| Markit Manufacturing |
54.2 to 55.5 |
55.5 |
55.5 |
| ISM Manufacturing |
57.7 to 60.0 |
58.7 |
59.1 |
From the Markit PMI Manufacturing Index:
Operating conditions improve at quickest rate for nine months
Output and new orders expand at quickest rates for a year
Purchasing activity rises at steepest pace since September 2014
Input price inflation eases but remains sharp
Operating conditions across the US manufacturing sector continued to improve in January, with the latest survey data indicating the strongest upturn since March 2015. Moreover, production levels and new orders grew at the quickest rates in twelve months. Rising global demand also drove a faster expansion in new export orders. Higher production requirements resulted in a sharp and accelerated increase in buying activity. At the same time, the rate of input cost inflation eased slightly but remained marked overall. Consequently, firms raised their selling prices at the secondsteepest pace since September 2014.
The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit final US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) registered 55.5 in January, up from 55.1 in December. The latest index reading indicated a strong improvement in business conditions across the manufacturing sector. Moreover, the index signalled the strongest upturn in the health of the sector for over two-and-a-half years.
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