The Labor Department is expected to report Friday that the economy added 203,000 jobs in September, and that should further support Federal Reserve plans to raise interest rates before the end of this year.

Bouncing back from a harsh winter, GDP grew at a 3.9 percent annual rate in the second quarter.  The balance of this year and next, growth is expected to moderate to 2.5 to 2.8 percent, but that is still considerably better than the first six years of the economic recovery.

Despite stock market jitters and manufacturing hard hit by a strong dollar and retrenchment in the oil sector, consumer spending continues to increase at a strong pace.

Overall household balance sheets are in their best shape since the recovery began. Stock prices are down but home values are up and ordinary consumers have learned to be more cautious about carrying large credit card balances.

Low interest rates are expected to boost growth by encouraging consumers to purchase new homes, automobiles and appliances, and businesses to finance new investments in plant and equipment.

As the Fed raises the federal funds rate—the overnight bank borrowing rate—the impact on mortgage rates will be minimal  and should not derail new home construction.

The auto and appliance sectors have largely recovered from the Great Recession and no longer need support from rock bottom rates.

Business spending on plant and equipment remains weak by the standards of past economic recoveries but that has more to do with structural shifts in the economy than interest rates. Businesses are learning to more effectively use machines for multiple purposes. For example, a single 3D-printer can be used to create a diverse range of products. And reliance on software to control devices permits engineers to merely reprogram machines rather replace those as needs change.

Although inflation remains well below the Fed’s 2 percent target, Fed policymakers continue to express optimism that the pace of price increases will accelerate as oil markets tighten and slack industrial capacity is absorbed.  

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