The headlines say wholesale sales were unchanged month-over-month with inventory levels remaining elevated. Our analysis also shows an acceleration of the rate of growth for the rolling averages.

Analyst Opinion of this month’s Wholesale Sales

Overall, I believe the rolling averages tell the real story – and they improved this month. The short-term trends are showing an improving cycle beginning in 2016.

Inventory levels this month are are the high side of normal – but not recessionary.

To add to the confusion, year-over-year employment changes and sales growth do not match.

Note that Econintersect analysis is based on the change from one year ago. Econintersect Analysis:

  • unadjusted sales rate of growth accelerated 6.0 % month-over-month.
  • unadjusted sales year-over-year growth is up 12.9 % year-over-year (it was a downwardly adjusted +6.9 % last month)
  • unadjusted sales (but inflation adjusted) up 10.8 % year-over-year
  • the 3 month rolling average of unadjusted sales up 0.7 % month-over-month, and up 10.6 % year-over-year.

  • unadjusted inventories up 4.9 % year-over-year (decelerated 0.1 % month-over-month), the unadjusted inventory-to-sales ratio is 1.26 which is marginally above normal but well below recessionary levels.

    • US Census Headlines based on seasonally adjusted data:

  • sales unchanged month-over-month, up 9.8 % year-over-year
  • inventories up 0.6 % month-over-month, inventory-to-sales ratios were 1.32 one year ago – and are now 1.26.
  • there were no expectations for inventory growth from Nasdaq / Econoday

    • Wholesale sales were at record highs for almost two years – until 2015 where they contracted year-over-year – this contraction ended in 2017. Overall, the inventory-to-sales ratios is slowly returning to normal.

    Seasonally Adjusted Inventory-to-Sales Ratio

    Print Friendly, PDF & Email

    Related Posts