Ok, look…

We’ve gotten to a place now where we’re all searching for reasons why we shouldn’t blame Donald Trump for adverse market outcomes.

In other words, the default when looking at things that are directly influenced by policy decisions (think FX and yields), is to assume that the only data point which matters is the fact that there’s an increasingly unhinged reality TV show host whose CV includes a WrestleMania cameo, jet-setting around the country, launch codes in tow, holding delirious campaign rallies nine months after the election and dog-whistling to Klansmen.

Here’s what we wrote earlier today:

Headed into 2017, “long USD” was one of the consensus, “no-brainer” trades. Hilariously, the excuse everyone would have given you back in late December for their rampant bullishness is the very same excuse they’ll give you now to explain why they’re overwhelmingly bearish: “dude, have you seen who’s President?”

Let’s just be honest with ourselves here: there is no question why yields and the dollar have had a harder time launching this year than one of Kim’s early-model, homemade ICBMs. The culprit is Trump.

Now if you want to just go ahead and start from that, and then move on to talking about how Trump is affecting the rate diffs pillar for the dollar and how he’s now a liability to his own agenda which in turn is making the Fed nervous about whether fiscal policy is prepared to take the baton from monetary policy, then fine.

But do me a favor: don’t act like the controlling factor here isn’t Pennywise, the geriatric orange clown.

So with that as the setup, consider the following from Cameron Crise (or, as Jeff Gundlach knows him, “who?!”)….

Via Bloomberg

Everybody loves a good narrative, from sportscasters to investors and market pundits. “Joe was clutch because he wanted it more” is standard fare among sports announcers, just like “x happened because of y” is a common post hoc narrative attribution for market observers. “The dollar is weakening because of Trump and U.S. political dysfunction” is a common talking point at the moment, but is it true? The evidence suggests that there may be a “Trump effect” on the dollar, but it’s probably smaller than you think.