I have turned comments on for this post so that anyone with the answer (or an opinion) can chime in. I have not allowed comments for years now because a) I don’t have time for trolls and b) there was a formatting issue last time I tried it. But I may allow comments for select posts (assuming the format is not a mess) and see how it goes.
A subscriber and keen market watcher sent me a link to this ZH post touting a massive net long position in the long bond: The ‘Smart’ Money Has Never Been This Long the Long Bond. That post used a chart from GaveKal to make its point.
But he also sent a CoT chart (also by way of GaveKal) of ‘US Treasury Bonds’ that looked nothing like the chart above, asking if I know why they are different. Answer: I don’t. I thought, what are “US Treasury Bonds?”, i.e. maybe it was of different duration? So I pulled the individual 30 year at Sentimentrader and indeed, it is nothing like the ZH chart.
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From COTbase, it’s the same story. The 30 year bond is not extreme in its commercial alignment.
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Same goes for COTpricecharts.com.
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So I ask you – if you know – what gives?
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