Longbow analyst David MacGregor downgraded Harley-Davidson (HOG) to Underperform from Neutral with a price target of $43. The shares closed yesterday up 2% to $52.06.

Channel checks in Q4 revealed that Harley’s U.S. retail sales are trending down 5%-7% with U.S. shipments expected to be down at least 20%, MacGregor tells investors in a research note. The analyst expects international shipments to offset weaker shipments in the U.S. but he sees a “strong chance” that Q4 shipments could be at the low-end of the company’s shipment guidance or miss for the quarter. He believes Polaris Industries’ (PII) Indian motorcycle gained slight share versus Harley-Davidson in the midsize category while Harley likely gained share in the touring segment.

MacGregor views his Q4 checks as negative for Harley and mixed for Polaris.